IGGCAS OpenIR  > 地球与行星物理院重点实验室
The Prediction of Day-to-Day Occurrence of Low Latitude Ionospheric Strong Scintillation Using Gradient Boosting Algorithm
Zhao, Xiukuan1,2,3; Li, Guozhu3,4,5; Xie, Haiyong2,3,4; Hu, Lianhuan3,4; Sun, Wenjie3,4,5; Yang, Sipeng3,4; Li, Yi2,3,4; Ning, Baiqi3,4,6; Takahashi, Hisao7
2021-12-01
Source PublicationSPACE WEATHER-THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS
Volume19Issue:12Pages:14
AbstractIonospheric scintillations caused by equatorial plasma bubbles (EPBs) can seriously affect various high technology systems based on Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) signals at equatorial and low latitudes. A reliable prediction of ionospheric scintillation occurrence is critical to relieve the effect. Using the long-term ground-based GNSS receiver and ionosonde data collected in the Brazilian longitude sector during 2012-2020, an ionospheric strong scintillation prediction model based on the gradient boosting algorithms extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM), and CatBoost is created and tested. It is for the first time that the XGBoost, LightGBM, and CatBoost are utilized to predict the day-to-day occurrence of regional ionospheric scintillation during post-sunset hours. The relative importance of different parameters affecting EPB/scintillation occurrence for building the prediction model is examined. A comparison of daily scintillation occurrence from the modeled and observed results during 2014 (solar maximum) and 2020 (solar minimum) shows that the gradient boosting algorithms are effective for predicting strong scintillations over low latitude, with a prediction accuracy of similar to 85%. The results suggest that the trained model with input of total electron content, equatorial F layer peak height and critical frequency before sunset could be well employed to predict the occurrence/nonoccurrence of intense scintillations over low latitude after sunset on a daily basis.
Keywordionospheric scintillation prediction Gradient boosting algorithm Equatorial F layer height
DOI10.1029/2021SW002884
Funding OrganizationNational Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Project of Stable Support for Youth Team in Basic Research Field, CAS ; Project of Stable Support for Youth Team in Basic Research Field, CAS ; International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Solar-Terrestrial Environment Research Network (STERN) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Solar-Terrestrial Environment Research Network (STERN) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Chinese Meridian Project ; Chinese Meridian Project ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Project of Stable Support for Youth Team in Basic Research Field, CAS ; Project of Stable Support for Youth Team in Basic Research Field, CAS ; International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Solar-Terrestrial Environment Research Network (STERN) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Solar-Terrestrial Environment Research Network (STERN) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Chinese Meridian Project ; Chinese Meridian Project ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Project of Stable Support for Youth Team in Basic Research Field, CAS ; Project of Stable Support for Youth Team in Basic Research Field, CAS ; International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Solar-Terrestrial Environment Research Network (STERN) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Solar-Terrestrial Environment Research Network (STERN) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Chinese Meridian Project ; Chinese Meridian Project ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Project of Stable Support for Youth Team in Basic Research Field, CAS ; Project of Stable Support for Youth Team in Basic Research Field, CAS ; International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Solar-Terrestrial Environment Research Network (STERN) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Solar-Terrestrial Environment Research Network (STERN) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Chinese Meridian Project ; Chinese Meridian Project
WOS KeywordEQUATORIAL ; TEC ; GENERATION ; BRAZIL ; DRIFT
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Natural Science Foundation of China[42020104002] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41727803] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42074190] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41904141] ; Project of Stable Support for Youth Team in Basic Research Field, CAS[YSBR-018] ; International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences[183311KYSB20200003] ; Solar-Terrestrial Environment Research Network (STERN) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Chinese Meridian Project
Funding OrganizationNational Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Project of Stable Support for Youth Team in Basic Research Field, CAS ; Project of Stable Support for Youth Team in Basic Research Field, CAS ; International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Solar-Terrestrial Environment Research Network (STERN) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Solar-Terrestrial Environment Research Network (STERN) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Chinese Meridian Project ; Chinese Meridian Project ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Project of Stable Support for Youth Team in Basic Research Field, CAS ; Project of Stable Support for Youth Team in Basic Research Field, CAS ; International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Solar-Terrestrial Environment Research Network (STERN) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Solar-Terrestrial Environment Research Network (STERN) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Chinese Meridian Project ; Chinese Meridian Project ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Project of Stable Support for Youth Team in Basic Research Field, CAS ; Project of Stable Support for Youth Team in Basic Research Field, CAS ; International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Solar-Terrestrial Environment Research Network (STERN) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Solar-Terrestrial Environment Research Network (STERN) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Chinese Meridian Project ; Chinese Meridian Project ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Project of Stable Support for Youth Team in Basic Research Field, CAS ; Project of Stable Support for Youth Team in Basic Research Field, CAS ; International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Solar-Terrestrial Environment Research Network (STERN) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Solar-Terrestrial Environment Research Network (STERN) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Chinese Meridian Project ; Chinese Meridian Project
WOS Research AreaAstronomy & Astrophysics ; Geochemistry & Geophysics ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS SubjectAstronomy & Astrophysics ; Geochemistry & Geophysics ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000735908200012
PublisherAMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.iggcas.ac.cn/handle/132A11/103959
Collection地球与行星物理院重点实验室
Corresponding AuthorLi, Guozhu
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Mohe Observ Geophys, Inst Geol & Geophys, Beijing, Peoples R China
2.Natl Earth Syst Sci Data Ctr, Geophys Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Earth & Planetary Phys, Inst Geol & Geophys, Beijing, Peoples R China
4.Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing Natl Observ Space Environm, Inst Geol & Geophys, Beijing, Peoples R China
5.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Earth & Planetary Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
6.Chinese Acad Sci, Innovat Acad Earth Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
7.Inst Nacl Pesquisas Espaciais, Div Aeron, Sao Jose Dos Campos, Brazil
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Zhao, Xiukuan,Li, Guozhu,Xie, Haiyong,et al. The Prediction of Day-to-Day Occurrence of Low Latitude Ionospheric Strong Scintillation Using Gradient Boosting Algorithm[J]. SPACE WEATHER-THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS,2021,19(12):14.
APA Zhao, Xiukuan.,Li, Guozhu.,Xie, Haiyong.,Hu, Lianhuan.,Sun, Wenjie.,...&Takahashi, Hisao.(2021).The Prediction of Day-to-Day Occurrence of Low Latitude Ionospheric Strong Scintillation Using Gradient Boosting Algorithm.SPACE WEATHER-THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS,19(12),14.
MLA Zhao, Xiukuan,et al."The Prediction of Day-to-Day Occurrence of Low Latitude Ionospheric Strong Scintillation Using Gradient Boosting Algorithm".SPACE WEATHER-THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS 19.12(2021):14.
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