IGGCAS OpenIR  > 页岩气与地质工程院重点实验室
Behavior characteristics from self-organization to criticality caused by cumulative damage leading to instability of locked segments in seismogenic fault system
Wu Xiao-Wa1; Qin Si-Qing2,3,4; Xue Lei2,3,4; Yang Bai-Cun2,3,4; Zhang Ke2,3,4
2018-10-20
发表期刊ACTA PHYSICA SINICA
ISSN1000-3290
卷号67期号:20页码:10
摘要Each of the seismogenic locked segments in a well-defined seismic zone can accumulate high strain energy to bring about a major earthquake. Hence, better understanding the physical implication of self-organized criticality in the locked segment (rock) failure process is crucial to achieving insights into such issues as earthquake predictability and so on. We point out that there exist two critical points in the locked segment fracturing process. The first critical point is volume expansion point, which is the starting point of self-organization, at which a rupture event with high energy occurs. It can be regarded as the only identified precursor to macroscopic rupture of locked segment. The second critical point is the peak strength point, namely, the instability point, at which a major earthquake which is able to generate obvious surface rupture zones takes place. According to our previous research on the theoretical relationship of strain ratio between the two points as well as the constrained expressions concerning earthquake magnitudes and elastic strain energy, also known as the theory about the brittle failure of multiple locked segments in a seismogenic fault system, we can predict some characteristic earthquakes occurring at the first and the second critical point of locked segment, e.g., the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman Mw9.0 earthquake in Indonesia, the 2008 Sichuan Ms8.1 earthquake in China, and the 2011 T5hoku Mw9.0 earthquake in Japan. This was obtained by retrospectively analyzing the earthquake cases in 62 seismic zones covering the circum-Pacific seismic belt and the Eurasia seismic belt. The present results show that the self-organized process before the locked segment (rock) instability must arise due to its heterogeneity; there exists a causal link between the self-organization and criticality; it is possible to predict some large earthquakes (e.g. characteristic earthquakes) just because of the existence of self-organized process. We emphasize here that the damage process between the two critical points is not transient behavior, usually a long-term process; the evolution of characteristic earthquakes follows a deterministic rule; there is no probability with which small earthquakes can cascade into a large event (e.g. characteristic earthquakes). In summary, this study can help to comprehend the evolutionary mechanism of characteristic earthquakes, provide a physical basis of understanding the generation process of earthquakes, and clarify such issues as the identification of earthquake types and predictability of earthquakes.
关键词self-organization critical instability sandpile model locked segment
DOI10.7498/aps.67.20180614
资助者National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China
关键词[WOS]EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION ; FAILURE ; ROCK ; FRACTURE ; MECHANISM ; CANNOT
语种英语
资助项目National Natural Science Foundation of China[41572311] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[U1704243] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41302233] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41877218]
资助者National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China
WOS研究方向Physics
WOS类目Physics, Multidisciplinary
WOS记录号WOS:000448520200016
出版者CHINESE PHYSICAL SOC
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://ir.iggcas.ac.cn/handle/132A11/89154
专题页岩气与地质工程院重点实验室
通讯作者Qin Si-Qing
作者单位1.Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Architecture & Civil Engn, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geol & Geophys, Key Lab Shale Gas & Geoengn, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Earth Sci, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China
4.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Earth & Planetary Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
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GB/T 7714
Wu Xiao-Wa,Qin Si-Qing,Xue Lei,et al. Behavior characteristics from self-organization to criticality caused by cumulative damage leading to instability of locked segments in seismogenic fault system[J]. ACTA PHYSICA SINICA,2018,67(20):10.
APA Wu Xiao-Wa,Qin Si-Qing,Xue Lei,Yang Bai-Cun,&Zhang Ke.(2018).Behavior characteristics from self-organization to criticality caused by cumulative damage leading to instability of locked segments in seismogenic fault system.ACTA PHYSICA SINICA,67(20),10.
MLA Wu Xiao-Wa,et al."Behavior characteristics from self-organization to criticality caused by cumulative damage leading to instability of locked segments in seismogenic fault system".ACTA PHYSICA SINICA 67.20(2018):10.
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