IGGCAS OpenIR  > 新生代地质与环境院重点实验室
Consistent multidecadal variability in global temperature reconstructions and simulations over the Common Era
Neukom, Raphael1,2; Barboza, Luis A.3; Erb, Michael P.4; Shi, Feng5,6; Emile-Geay, Julien7; Evans, Michael N.8,9; Franke, Jorg1,2; Kaufman, Darrell S.4; Lucke, Lucie10; Rehfeld, Kira11,12; Schurer, Andrew10; Zhu, Feng7; Bronnimann, Stefan1,2; Hakim, Gregory J.13; Henley, Benjamin J.14,15,16; Ljungqvist, Fredrik Charpentier17,18,19; McKay, Nicholas4; Valler, Veronika1,2; von Gunten, Lucien20
2019-08-01
Source PublicationNATURE GEOSCIENCE
ISSN1752-0894
Volume12Issue:8Pages:643-+
AbstractMultidecadal surface temperature changes may be forced by natural as well as anthropogenic factors, or arise unforced from the climate system. Distinguishing these factors is essential for estimating sensitivity to multiple climatic forcings and the amplitude of the unforced variability. Here we present 2,000-year-long global mean temperature reconstructions using seven different statistical methods that draw from a global collection of temperature-sensitive palaeoclimate records. Our reconstructions display synchronous multidecadal temperature fluctuations that are coherent with one another and with fully forced millennial model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 across the Common Era. A substantial portion of pre-industrial (1300-1800 CE) variability at multidecadal timescales is attributed to volcanic aerosol forcing. Reconstructions and simulations qualitatively agree on the amplitude of the unforced global mean multidecadal temperature variability, thereby increasing confidence in future projections of climate change on these timescales. The largest warming trends at timescales of 20 years and longer occur during the second half of the twentieth century, highlighting the unusual character of the warming in recent decades.
DOI10.1038/s41561-019-0400-0
Funding OrganizationUS National Science Foundation ; US National Science Foundation ; Swiss Academy of Sciences ; Swiss Academy of Sciences ; Swiss NSF ; Swiss NSF ; DFG ; DFG ; European Union ; European Union ; NSFC ; NSFC ; NERC under the Belmont forum, Grant PacMedy ; NERC under the Belmont forum, Grant PacMedy ; Australian Research Council ; Australian Research Council ; DELWP on Linkage Project ; DELWP on Linkage Project ; Melbourne Water ; Melbourne Water ; Australian Bureau of Meteorology ; Australian Bureau of Meteorology ; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes ; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes ; US National Science Foundation ; US National Science Foundation ; Swiss Academy of Sciences ; Swiss Academy of Sciences ; Swiss NSF ; Swiss NSF ; DFG ; DFG ; European Union ; European Union ; NSFC ; NSFC ; NERC under the Belmont forum, Grant PacMedy ; NERC under the Belmont forum, Grant PacMedy ; Australian Research Council ; Australian Research Council ; DELWP on Linkage Project ; DELWP on Linkage Project ; Melbourne Water ; Melbourne Water ; Australian Bureau of Meteorology ; Australian Bureau of Meteorology ; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes ; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes ; US National Science Foundation ; US National Science Foundation ; Swiss Academy of Sciences ; Swiss Academy of Sciences ; Swiss NSF ; Swiss NSF ; DFG ; DFG ; European Union ; European Union ; NSFC ; NSFC ; NERC under the Belmont forum, Grant PacMedy ; NERC under the Belmont forum, Grant PacMedy ; Australian Research Council ; Australian Research Council ; DELWP on Linkage Project ; DELWP on Linkage Project ; Melbourne Water ; Melbourne Water ; Australian Bureau of Meteorology ; Australian Bureau of Meteorology ; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes ; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes ; US National Science Foundation ; US National Science Foundation ; Swiss Academy of Sciences ; Swiss Academy of Sciences ; Swiss NSF ; Swiss NSF ; DFG ; DFG ; European Union ; European Union ; NSFC ; NSFC ; NERC under the Belmont forum, Grant PacMedy ; NERC under the Belmont forum, Grant PacMedy ; Australian Research Council ; Australian Research Council ; DELWP on Linkage Project ; DELWP on Linkage Project ; Melbourne Water ; Melbourne Water ; Australian Bureau of Meteorology ; Australian Bureau of Meteorology ; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes ; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes
WOS KeywordNORTHERN-HEMISPHERE TEMPERATURE ; LAST MILLENNIUM ; SURFACE-TEMPERATURE ; PART I ; FIELD RECONSTRUCTION ; CLIMATE VARIABILITY ; VOLCANIC-ERUPTIONS ; SYSTEM MODELS ; PATTERNS ; RESOLUTION
Language英语
Funding ProjectUS National Science Foundation ; Swiss Academy of Sciences ; Swiss NSF[PZ00P2_154802] ; DFG[RE3994-2/1] ; European Union[787574] ; NSFC[41877440] ; NSFC[41430531] ; NSFC[41690114] ; NERC under the Belmont forum, Grant PacMedy[NE/P006752/1] ; Australian Research Council ; DELWP on Linkage Project[LP150100062] ; Melbourne Water ; Australian Bureau of Meteorology ; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes[CE170100023]
Funding OrganizationUS National Science Foundation ; US National Science Foundation ; Swiss Academy of Sciences ; Swiss Academy of Sciences ; Swiss NSF ; Swiss NSF ; DFG ; DFG ; European Union ; European Union ; NSFC ; NSFC ; NERC under the Belmont forum, Grant PacMedy ; NERC under the Belmont forum, Grant PacMedy ; Australian Research Council ; Australian Research Council ; DELWP on Linkage Project ; DELWP on Linkage Project ; Melbourne Water ; Melbourne Water ; Australian Bureau of Meteorology ; Australian Bureau of Meteorology ; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes ; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes ; US National Science Foundation ; US National Science Foundation ; Swiss Academy of Sciences ; Swiss Academy of Sciences ; Swiss NSF ; Swiss NSF ; DFG ; DFG ; European Union ; European Union ; NSFC ; NSFC ; NERC under the Belmont forum, Grant PacMedy ; NERC under the Belmont forum, Grant PacMedy ; Australian Research Council ; Australian Research Council ; DELWP on Linkage Project ; DELWP on Linkage Project ; Melbourne Water ; Melbourne Water ; Australian Bureau of Meteorology ; Australian Bureau of Meteorology ; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes ; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes ; US National Science Foundation ; US National Science Foundation ; Swiss Academy of Sciences ; Swiss Academy of Sciences ; Swiss NSF ; Swiss NSF ; DFG ; DFG ; European Union ; European Union ; NSFC ; NSFC ; NERC under the Belmont forum, Grant PacMedy ; NERC under the Belmont forum, Grant PacMedy ; Australian Research Council ; Australian Research Council ; DELWP on Linkage Project ; DELWP on Linkage Project ; Melbourne Water ; Melbourne Water ; Australian Bureau of Meteorology ; Australian Bureau of Meteorology ; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes ; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes ; US National Science Foundation ; US National Science Foundation ; Swiss Academy of Sciences ; Swiss Academy of Sciences ; Swiss NSF ; Swiss NSF ; DFG ; DFG ; European Union ; European Union ; NSFC ; NSFC ; NERC under the Belmont forum, Grant PacMedy ; NERC under the Belmont forum, Grant PacMedy ; Australian Research Council ; Australian Research Council ; DELWP on Linkage Project ; DELWP on Linkage Project ; Melbourne Water ; Melbourne Water ; Australian Bureau of Meteorology ; Australian Bureau of Meteorology ; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes ; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes
WOS Research AreaGeology
WOS SubjectGeosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS IDWOS:000477864200015
PublisherNATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
Citation statistics
Cited Times:2[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.iggcas.ac.cn/handle/132A11/92972
Collection新生代地质与环境院重点实验室
Corresponding AuthorNeukom, Raphael
Affiliation1.Univ Bern, Oeschger Ctr Climate Change Res, Bern, Switzerland
2.Univ Bern, Inst Geog, Bern, Switzerland
3.Univ Costa Rica, Escuela Matemat CIMPA, San Jose, Costa Rica
4.No Arizona Univ, Sch Earth & Sustainabil, Flagstaff, AZ 86011 USA
5.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geol & Geophys, Key Lab Cenozo Geol & Environm, Beijing, Peoples R China
6.CAS Ctr Excellence Life & Paleoenvironm, Beijing, Peoples R China
7.Univ Southern Calif, Dept Earth Sci, Los Angeles, CA USA
8.Univ Maryland, Dept Geol, College Pk, MD 20742 USA
9.Univ Maryland, ESSIC, College Pk, MD 20742 USA
10.Univ Edinburgh, Sch Geosci, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland
11.British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, England
12.Heidelberg Univ, Inst Environm Phys, Heidelberg, Germany
13.Univ Washington, Dept Atmospher Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA
14.Univ Melbourne, Sch Earth Sci, Melbourne, Vic, Australia
15.Monash Univ, Sch Earth Atmosphere & Environm, Clayton, Vic, Australia
16.Univ Melbourne, ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Extremes, Melbourne, Vic, Australia
17.Stockholm Univ, Dept Hist, Stockholm, Sweden
18.Stockholm Univ, Bolin Ctr Climate Res, Stockholm, Sweden
19.Univ Cambridge, Dept Geog, Cambridge, England
20.PAGES Int Project Off, Bern, Switzerland
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Neukom, Raphael,Barboza, Luis A.,Erb, Michael P.,et al. Consistent multidecadal variability in global temperature reconstructions and simulations over the Common Era[J]. NATURE GEOSCIENCE,2019,12(8):643-+.
APA Neukom, Raphael.,Barboza, Luis A..,Erb, Michael P..,Shi, Feng.,Emile-Geay, Julien.,...&von Gunten, Lucien.(2019).Consistent multidecadal variability in global temperature reconstructions and simulations over the Common Era.NATURE GEOSCIENCE,12(8),643-+.
MLA Neukom, Raphael,et al."Consistent multidecadal variability in global temperature reconstructions and simulations over the Common Era".NATURE GEOSCIENCE 12.8(2019):643-+.
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