IGGCAS OpenIR  > 新生代地质与环境院重点实验室
The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity
Haywood, Alan M.1; Tindall, Julia C.1; Dowsett, Harry J.2; Dolan, Aisling M.1; Foley, Kevin M.2; Hunter, Stephen J.1; Hill, Daniel J.1; Chan, Wing-Le3; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako3; Stepanek, Christian4; Lohmann, Gerrit4; Chandan, Deepak5; Peltier, W. Richard5; Tan, Ning6,7; Contoux, Camille7; Ramstein, Gilles7; Li, Xiangyu8,9; Zhang, Zhongshi8,9,10; Guo, Chuncheng9; Nisancioglu, Kerim H.9; Zhang, Qiong11,12; Li, Qiang11,12; Kamae, Youichi13; Chandler, Mark A.14; Sohl, Linda E.14; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.15; Feng, Ran16; Brady, Esther C.15; von der Heydt, Anna S.17,18; Baatsen, Michiel L. J.18; Lunt, Daniel J.19
2020-11-04
Source PublicationCLIMATE OF THE PAST
ISSN1814-9324
Volume16Issue:6Pages:2095-2123
AbstractThe Pliocene epoch has great potential to improve our understanding of the long-term climatic and environmental consequences of an atmospheric CO2 concentration near similar to 400 parts per million by volume. Here we present the large-scale features of Pliocene climate as simulated by a new ensemble of climate models of varying complexity and spatial resolution based on new reconstructions of boundary conditions (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2; PlioMIP2). As a global annual average, modelled surface air temperatures increase by between 1.7 and 5.2 degrees C relative to the pre-industrial era with a multi-model mean value of 3.2 degrees C. Annual mean total precipitation rates increase by 7 % (range: 2 %-13 %). On average, surface air temperature (SAT) increases by 4.3 degrees C over land and 2.8 degrees C over the oceans. There is a clear pattern of polar amplification with warming polewards of 60 degrees N and 60 degrees S exceeding the global mean warming by a factor of 2.3. In the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, meridional temperature gradients are reduced, while tropical zonal gradients remain largely unchanged. There is a statistically significant relationship between a model's climate response associated with a doubling in CO2 (equilibrium climate sensitivity; ECS) and its simulated Pliocene surface temperature response. The mean ensemble Earth system response to a doubling of CO2 (including ice sheet feedbacks) is 67 % greater than ECS; this is larger than the increase of 47 % obtained from the PlioMIP1 ensemble. Proxy-derived estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperatures are used to assess model estimates of ECS and give an ECS range of 2.6-4.8 degrees C. This result is in general accord with the ECS range presented by previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports.
DOI10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020
Funding OrganizationPast Earth Network (EPSRC) ; Past Earth Network (EPSRC) ; Past Earth Network (EPSRC) ; Past Earth Network (EPSRC) ; Past Earth Network (EPSRC) ; Past Earth Network (EPSRC) ; Past Earth Network (EPSRC) ; Past Earth Network (EPSRC)
WOS KeywordEARTH SYSTEM MODEL ; PLIOMIP EXPERIMENTAL-DESIGN ; SIMPLE BIOSPHERE MODEL ; OCEAN HEAT TRANSPORTS ; PERMANENT EL-NINO ; SEA-ICE MODEL ; MID-PLIOCENE ; COUPLED MODEL ; ECMWF MODEL ; CIRCULATION
Language英语
Funding ProjectPast Earth Network (EPSRC)[EP/M008.363/1]
Funding OrganizationPast Earth Network (EPSRC) ; Past Earth Network (EPSRC) ; Past Earth Network (EPSRC) ; Past Earth Network (EPSRC) ; Past Earth Network (EPSRC) ; Past Earth Network (EPSRC) ; Past Earth Network (EPSRC) ; Past Earth Network (EPSRC)
WOS Research AreaGeology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS SubjectGeosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000589260100002
PublisherCOPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.iggcas.ac.cn/handle/132A11/98705
Collection新生代地质与环境院重点实验室
Corresponding AuthorTindall, Julia C.
Affiliation1.Univ Leeds, Sch Earth & Environm, Woodhouse Lane, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England
2.US Geol Survey, Florence Bascom Geosci Ctr, Reston, VA 20192 USA
3.Univ Tokyo, Atmosphere & Ocean Res Inst, Kashiwa, Chiba 2778564, Japan
4.Helmholtz Zentrum Polar & Meeresforsch AWI, Alfred Wegener Inst, D-27570 Bremerhaven, Germany
5.Univ Toronto, Dept Phys, Toronto, ON M5S 1A7, Canada
6.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geol & Geophys, Key Lab Cenozo Geol & Environm, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China
7.Univ Paris Saclay, CEA CNRS UVSQ, LSCE IPSL, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France
8.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China
9.Bjerknes Ctr Climate Res, NORCE Norwegian Res Ctr, N-5007 Bergen, Norway
10.China Univ Geosci, Sch Environm Studies, Dept Atmospher Sci, Wuhan, Peoples R China
11.Stockholm Univ, Dept Phys Geog, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden
12.Stockholm Univ, Bolin Ctr Climate Res, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden
13.Univ Tsukuba, Fac Life & Environm Sci, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058572, Japan
14.Columbia Univ, CCSR, GISS, New York, NY 10025 USA
15.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Boulder, CO 80305 USA
16.Univ Connecticut, Coll Liberal Arts & Sci, Dept Geosci, Storrs, CT 06033 USA
17.Univ Utrecht, Ctr Complex Syst Sci, NL-3584 CS Utrecht, Netherlands
18.Univ Utrecht, Dept Phys, Inst Marine & Atmospher Res Utrecht IMAU, NL-3584 CS Utrecht, Netherlands
19.Univ Bristol, Sch Geog Sci, Bristol BS8 1QU, Avon, England
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Haywood, Alan M.,Tindall, Julia C.,Dowsett, Harry J.,et al. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity[J]. CLIMATE OF THE PAST,2020,16(6):2095-2123.
APA Haywood, Alan M..,Tindall, Julia C..,Dowsett, Harry J..,Dolan, Aisling M..,Foley, Kevin M..,...&Lunt, Daniel J..(2020).The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity.CLIMATE OF THE PAST,16(6),2095-2123.
MLA Haywood, Alan M.,et al."The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity".CLIMATE OF THE PAST 16.6(2020):2095-2123.
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